Lapse Modelling in Life Insurance: From ML to Auditable Assumptions

Introduction & Programme

Accurate modelling of lapse rates in life insurance portfolios is a critical component of actuarial work, underpinning cash flow projections, embedded value calculations, and reporting / regulatory frameworks such as IFRS 17 and Solvency II. After reviewing the key theoretical and modelling foundations of lapse behaviour, this web session focuses on a question increasingly faced by practitioners once a well-performing lapse model exists: how to translate machine learning (ML) outputs into assumptions that can be used in actuarial cash flow engines.

Participants who have already attended the web session 'Modelling Lapse Rates in Life Insurance' on 11 June 2026 will receive a 50% discount on this web session, as approximately half of the content will be new, while the remaining content will build on topics covered in the previous web session. To benefit from the discount, please submit your registration for this web session using our online form. Afterwards, please contact Jana Schwarz at jana.schwarz@aktuar.de, so that the participation fee can be adjusted accordingly.

All the above times are given in CEST (Central European Summer Time).

Learning Objectives & Approach

The purpose of this web session is to provide a technical overview of methods used to model life insurance lapse and surrender rates, while demonstrating how these approaches integrate with actuarial cash flow models, which support accounting, pricing, risk, and solvency assessments.

The web session first covers the foundations of lapse modelling, then turns to its central question: how to reconcile ML outputs with the deterministic, auditable assumptions required by actuarial engines.

The foundational part covers the key determinants of lapse behaviour — market-dependent factors, alongside contract-specific factors together with the competing hypotheses linking lapse rates to interest rate movements or policyholder liquidity needs. This is followed by an overview of the modelling toolkit: from traditional segment-based assumptions to ML approaches such as CART, random forests, gradient boosting/XGBoost, and neural networks.

The web session then turns to three complementary reconciliation approaches:

• Indexed (grid) tables: The ML model generates a multi-dimensional grid over the key drivers, fed into the actuarial model. Fully auditable and reproducible, at the cost of some precision loss at the grid boundaries.
• Model compression / distillation: A simpler, transparent model (e.g., logistic regression or a shallow tree) is fitted to the ML model's predictions rather than the raw data, closely approximating it where it matters most.
• Run-time API deployment: The ML model is called live from the actuarial engine, preserving full fidelity but requiring robust governance around versioning and reproducibility.

Across all three, SHAP values serve as the common audit trail, decomposing individual predictions into additive feature contributions — what most reviewers will ask for. The session contains a case study tying these approaches together, and touches on deployment in R and/or Python and integration with actuarial systems.

Participants

This web session is intended for participants involved in life insurance cash flow modelling, reporting, and risk assessment, including those working in actuarial, finance, controlling, or risk management roles. It is also relevant for professionals seeking to understand the practical application of lapse rate modelling in the context of long-term liability projections and regulatory frameworks related to life insurance. The session will cover practices for integrating lapse models into actuarial cash flow projections, which support accounting, pricing, risk, and solvency assessments.

Participants are expected to have general actuarial and financial knowledge, as well as a basic understanding of life insurance liability cash flow modelling. Some familiarity with GLM/logistic regression or tree-based ML approaches to lapse modelling is helpful but not required — the foundational concepts are covered before the main topic is developed.

Technical Requirements
Please check with your IT department if your firewall and computer settings support web session participation (the programme Zoom will be used for this online training). Please also make sure to join the web session with a stable internet connection.

Lecturers

Radek Hendrych
is an experienced actuarial specialist providing services to (re)insurance clients in the CEE and US markets, with recent engagements at the consulting company Tools4F. He has more than ten years of experience in both life and non-life insurance, including positions as chief actuary at a mid-sized insurer and senior manager at a Big4 firm. He integrates practical actuarial experience with his academic role as a lecturer and researcher at Charles University in Prague. Radek is a fully qualified actuary with the Czech Society of Actuaries and holds a PhD in Econometrics and Operational Research from Charles University, Prague.

Language & CPD Credits

The language of the web session will be English.

CPD Credits
For this web session, the following CPD credits are available under the CPD scheme of the relevant national actuarial association:

• Austria: 3 points
• Belgium: 3 points
• Bulgaria: 4.5 points
• Croatia: individual accreditation
• Czechia: 3 hours
• Denmark: 3 credits
• Estonia: 3 hours
• Finland: 3 points
• France: 18 points
• Germany: 3 hours
• Greece: 4 points
• Hungary: 3 hours
• Iceland: 3 credits
• Ireland: 3 hours
• Italy: GdLA individual accreditation
• Latvia: 3 hours
• Lithuania: 3 hours
• Netherlands: approx. 3 points (individual accreditation)
• Norway: 3 points
• Poland: 3 hours
• Portugal: 3 hours
• Serbia: 3 hours
• Slovakia: individual accreditation
• Slovenia: individual accreditation
• Spain: CAC: 3 hours, IAE: 3 hours
• Switzerland: individual accreditation
• USA: SOA (Section B): up to 3.6 hours

No responsibility is taken for the accuracy of this information.

Fees & Registration Details

Early Bird Registration Fee (until 21 April 2027):

• For private customers in the EU: €240.00 + VAT of the billing country (example Germany: €285.60 incl. 19% VAT)
• For private customers outside the EU: €285.60 (incl. 19% VAT)
• For businesses within the EU (excl. Germany, with valid VAT ID): €240.00 (net, reverse charge applies)
• For businesses in Germany: €285.60 (incl. 19% VAT)

Regular Registration Fee (from 22 April 2027):

• For private customers in the EU: €315.00 + VAT of the billing country (example Germany: €374.85 incl. 19% VAT)
• For private customers outside the EU: €374.85 (incl. 19% VAT)
• For businesses within the EU (excl. Germany, with valid VAT ID): €315.00 (net, reverse charge applies)
• For businesses in Germany: €374.85 (incl. 19% VAT)

Important VAT Information:

• For private customers with a billing address in an EU country: VAT will be charged at the applicable rate in the country of the billing address. The final amount, including VAT, will be calculated upon invoicing.
• For customers with a non-EU (third country) billing address: Only a non-company billing address is accepted for VAT compliance reasons. 19% VAT applies to all non-EU private customers.
• For businesses within the EU (excluding Germany), Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland, and the UK with a valid VAT ID: The reverse charge mechanism applies (net price; VAT will not be charged). Please ensure your valid VAT ID is entered correctly during registration.
• For all customers with a billing address in Germany: 19% VAT applies.

Please submit your registration using our online form below. Closer to the event, you will receive further login details to join the web session.

Your registration is binding. Cancellation is only possible up to 2 weeks before the first day of the event. If you cancel later, the full participation fee is due. You may appoint someone to take your place but must notify us in advance. EAA has the right to cancel the event if the minimum number of participants is not reached.

We will send you an invoice via email. Please allow a few days for handling. Please always give your invoice number when you effect payment. All bank charges are to be borne by the participant.

Registration is open until two working days before the web session. If registration has already been closed for this web session, please call us or send an email to contact@actuarial-academy.com in order to find out whether a late registration is still possible.

Participants who have already attended the web session 'Modelling Lapse Rates in Life Insurance' on 11 June 2026 will receive a 50% discount on this web session, as approximately half of the content will be new, while the remaining content will build on topics covered in the previous web session. To benefit from the discount, please submit your registration for this web session using our online form. Afterwards, please contact Jana Schwarz at jana.schwarz@aktuar.de, so that the participation fee can be adjusted accordingly.