Time Series for Actuarial Modelling with Machine Learning

Introduction & Programme

Actuaries have long relied on time-tested statistical models to forecast risk. Methods such as ARIMA, GLMs, and the Lee–Carter model remain valuable tools, and in many settings they still perform well. However, the environment in which actuaries will work is changing. This web session will explore why we are moving beyond these traditional boundaries and how "Actuarial Learning" is redefining forecasting.

Steps towards machine learning are driven by the need to handle high-dimensional data and nonlinear patterns that standard regression techniques cannot capture. To bridge this gap, we first consider ensemble methods, such as LightGBM, which outperform traditional actuarial models on complex tasks, such as predicting flood injuries.

Beyond ensembling, deep neural networks offer even stronger representational capacity, enabling us to model complex interactions directly from raw data. For instance, while the Lee-Carter model has been the gold standard for mortality forecasting, it often fails to capture cohort effects and cross-population heterogeneity. By adopting deep learning architectures, such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, we can achieve significantly higher predictive accuracy. We will also briefly discuss emerging developments, such as foundation models, which enable the use of pre-trained models in actuarial contexts where data may be limited.

Preliminary Programme
Wednesday, 2 December 2026
09:00-10:30 Introduction of Econometrics models employed in Time Series by Actuaries. Overview of Machine Learning, Deep Learning, and Foundation Models in Actuarial Time Series.
10:30-11:00 Break
11:00-12:30 Use cases in P&C, Life, Health, Climate Change forecasting

All the above times are given in CET (Central European Time).

Learning Objectives & Approach

This session is designed for practitioners who seek to understand when machine learning adds value, how to implement it, and the trade-offs involved. Rather than focusing purely on theory, we emphasize intuition, hands-on practice, and real modelling decisions.

Participants

This web session is aimed at actuaries, actuarial analysts, data scientists, and risk professionals working in insurance, pensions, and financial risk management. It is particularly relevant for those involved in pricing, reserving, capital modelling, and long-term forecasting who are facing increasing data complexity and uncertainty in their work.

Participants should have a basic understanding of Python.

Technical Requirements
Please check with your IT department if your firewall and computer settings support web session participation (the programme Zoom will be used for this online training). Please also make sure to join the web session with a stable internet connection.

Participants should have access to Google Colab.

Lecturers

Claudio Giorgio Giancaterino
Claudio Giancaterino is a qualified Actuary who works during the day with Intesa Sanpaolo Assicurazioni, an Italian Insurance Company based in Milan. In his free time, he is involved in AI & Data Science activities. Previously, he served as an assistant professor of Insurance Statistics at the Catholic University of Milan. He collaborated with the IAA and the IFoA on several working parties and participated in data science competitions. He holds workshops and talks at several conferences and meetups. He’s a member of the Astin Actuarial Group and the Italian Actuarial Body Association.

Language & CPD Credits

The language of the web session will be English.

CPD Credits
For this web session, the following CPD credits are available under the CPD scheme of the relevant national actuarial association:

• Austria: 3 points
  
• Belgium:  3 points
  
• Bulgaria:  4.5 points
  
• Croatia: individual accreditation
  
• Czechia:  3 hours
  
• Denmark 3 credits
  
• Estonia:  3 hours
  
• Finland: 3 points
  
• France:  18 points
  
• Germany:  3 hours
  
• Greece: 4 points
  
• Hungary:  3 hours
  
• Iceland: 3 credits
  
• Ireland: 3 hours
  
• Italy: GdLA individual accreditation
  
• Latvia: 3 hours
  
• Lithuania: 3 hours
  
• Netherlands:  approx. 3 points (individual accreditation)
  
• Norway: 3 points
  
• Poland: 3 hours
  
• Portugal: 3 hours
  
• Serbia: 3 hours
  
• Slovakia:  individual accreditation
  
• Slovenia:  individual accreditation
  
• Spain: CAC: 3 hours, IAE: 3 hours
  
• Switzerland:  individual accreditation
  
• USA: SOA (Section B): up to 3.6 hours

No responsibility is taken for the accuracy of this information.

Fees & Registration Details

Early Bird Registration Fee (until 21 October 2026):

• For private customers in the EU: €240.00 + VAT of the billing country (example Germany: €285.60 incl. 19% VAT)
• For private customers outside the EU: €285.60 (incl. 19% VAT)
• For businesses within the EU (excl. Germany, with valid VAT ID): €240.00 (net, reverse charge applies)
• For businesses in Germany: €285.60 (incl. 19% VAT)

Regular Registration Fee (from 22 October 2026):

• For private customers in the EU: €315.00 + VAT of the billing country (example Germany: €374.85 incl. 19% VAT)
• For private customers outside the EU: €374.85 (incl. 19% VAT)
• For businesses within the EU (excl. Germany, with valid VAT ID): €315.00 (net, reverse charge applies)
• For businesses in Germany: €374.85 (incl. 19% VAT)

Important VAT Information:

• For private customers with a billing address in an EU country: VAT will be charged at the applicable rate in the country of the billing address. The final amount, including VAT, will be calculated upon invoicing.
• For customers with a non-EU (third country) billing address: Only a non-company billing address is accepted for VAT compliance reasons. 19% VAT applies to all non-EU private customers.
• For businesses within the EU (excluding Germany), Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland, and the UK with a valid VAT ID: The reverse charge mechanism applies (net price; VAT will not be charged). Please ensure your valid VAT ID is entered correctly during registration.
• For all customers with a billing address in Germany: 19% VAT applies.

Please submit your registration using our online form below. Closer to the event, you will receive further login details to join the web session.

Your registration is binding. Cancellation is only possible up to 2 weeks before the first day of the event. If you cancel later, the full participation fee is due. You may appoint someone to take your place but must notify us in advance. EAA has the right to cancel the event if the minimum number of participants is not reached.

We will send you an invoice via email. Please allow a few days for handling. Please always give your invoice number when you effect payment. All bank charges are to be borne by the participant.

Registration is open until two working days before the web session. If registration has already been closed for this web session, please call us or send an email to contact@actuarial-academy.com in order to find out whether a late registration is still possible.