Heat, Drought & Cascading Losses: Europe's Hidden Protection Gap

Introduction & Programme

The heatwave of late June 2026 set a new national temperature record of 41.8 °C in Germany, and the Robert Koch Institute estimates around 5,100 heat-related deaths in Germany for this heat period alone. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, western Europe experienced its warmest June on record. In property and casualty insurance, however, heat is rarely a named peril. Its impact runs through perils and covers that are already insured, such as fire, business interruption, crop and motor, and through chains of events that link several lines of business.

This web session looks at heat from the perspective of existing European non-life portfolios. We discuss how heat and drought can be measured, how the trend challenges the stationarity assumptions behind pricing and reserving, and why the definition of a single heat event matters for accumulation control and reinsurance. A second focus is drought-induced subsidence: in France, the peril has been covered under the state-backed CatNat scheme since 1989, whereas in Germany such losses typically remain uninsured. Drawing on the AAE discussion paper on closing the protection gap, we compare national approaches and the treatment of subsidence in the Solvency II standard formula.

Finally, the session turns to cascading and compound events. Heat dries out vegetation and soils, sets off fires and infrastructure outages, and increasingly coincides with other perils, for instance when heatwaves are followed by flooding on parched soils. We discuss what this means for accumulation modelling and the design of ORSA scenarios.

All the above times are given in CEST (Central European Summer Time).

Learning Objectives & Approach

After this web session, participants will be able to:

• Explain through which channels heat and drought affect European non-life portfolios beyond named perils
• Assess how heat metrics and event definitions influence event frequencies, accumulation and reinsurance
• Describe the drought-subsidence protection gap and compare national approaches, including the treatment of subsidence in the Solvency II standard formula
• Identify cascading and compound loss chains and translate them into scenarios for accumulation control and the ORSA
• Discuss what insurers and the actuarial profession can contribute to closing heat-related protection gaps

Participants

This web session is aimed at non-life actuaries working in pricing, reserving, risk management, catastrophe modelling and reinsurance, as well as risk managers involved in the ORSA and climate scenario analysis. It is also of interest to life and health actuaries who want to understand cross-line accumulation from heat. Basic familiarity with non-life insurance is assumed; no background in climate science or programming is required.

Technical Requirements
Please check with your IT department if your firewall and computer settings support web session participation (the programme Zoom will be used for this online training). Please also make sure to join the web session with a stable internet connection.

Lecturers

Benedikt Funke
Benedikt Funke is Professor of Risk Management at the Institute for Insurance Studies (ivwKöln) at TH Köln University of Applied Sciences, where he heads the research centre for financial and actuarial risk management (FaRis). He is a qualified German actuary (Aktuar DAV) and a member of the DAV working group on the implications of climate change for non-life insurance. He is also a member of the AAE task force on protection gaps and co-authored its discussion paper on closing the protection gap and increasing resilience. He lectures for the DAA and the EAA, including in the EAA's CERA programme, and supports (re-)insurers as a freelance consultant on risk management, non-life risk modelling and regulation.

Language & CPD Credits

The language of the web session will be English.

CPD Credits
For this web session, the following CPD credits are available under the CPD scheme of the relevant national actuarial association:

• Austria: 3 points
• Belgium: 3 points
• Bulgaria: 4.5 points
• Croatia: individual accreditation
• Czechia: 3 hours
• Denmark: 3 credits
• Estonia: 3 hours
• Finland: 3 points
• France: 18 points
• Germany: 3 hours
• Greece: 4 points
• Hungary: 3 hours
• Iceland: 3 credits
• Ireland: 3 hours
• Italy: GdLA individual accreditation
• Latvia: 3 hours
• Lithuania: 3 hours
• Netherlands: approx. 3 points (individual accreditation)
• Norway: 3 points
• Poland: 3 hours
• Portugal: 3 hours
• Serbia: 3 hours
• Slovakia: individual accreditation
• Slovenia: individual accreditation
• Spain: CAC: 3 hours, IAE: 3 hours
• Switzerland: individual accreditation
• USA: SOA (Section B): up to 3.6 hours

No responsibility is taken for the accuracy of this information.

Fees & Registration Details

Early Bird Registration Fee (until 28 April 2027):

• For private customers in the EU: €240.00 + VAT of the billing country (example Germany: €285.60 incl. 19% VAT)
• For private customers outside the EU: €285.60 (incl. 19% VAT)
• For businesses within the EU (excl. Germany, with valid VAT ID): €240.00 (net, reverse charge applies)
• For businesses in Germany: €285.60 (incl. 19% VAT)

Regular Registration Fee (from 29 April 2027):

• For private customers in the EU: €315.00 + VAT of the billing country (example Germany: €374.85 incl. 19% VAT)
• For private customers outside the EU: €374.85 (incl. 19% VAT)
• For businesses within the EU (excl. Germany, with valid VAT ID): €315.00 (net, reverse charge applies)
• For businesses in Germany: €374.85 (incl. 19% VAT)

Important VAT Information:

• For private customers with a billing address in an EU country: VAT will be charged at the applicable rate in the country of the billing address. The final amount, including VAT, will be calculated upon invoicing.
• For customers with a non-EU (third country) billing address: Only a non-company billing address is accepted for VAT compliance reasons. 19% VAT applies to all non-EU private customers.
• For businesses within the EU (excluding Germany), Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland, and the UK with a valid VAT ID: The reverse charge mechanism applies (net price; VAT will not be charged). Please ensure your valid VAT ID is entered correctly during registration.
• For all customers with a billing address in Germany: 19% VAT applies.

Please submit your registration using our online form below. Closer to the event, you will receive further login details to join the web session.

Your registration is binding. Cancellation is only possible up to 2 weeks before the first day of the event. If you cancel later, the full participation fee is due. You may appoint someone to take your place but must notify us in advance. EAA has the right to cancel the event if the minimum number of participants is not reached.

We will send you an invoice via email. Please allow a few days for handling. Please always give your invoice number when you effect payment. All bank charges are to be borne by the participant.

Registration is open until two working days before the web session. If registration has already been closed for this web session, please call us or send an email to contact@actuarial-academy.com in order to find out whether a late registration is still possible.