Climate Risk scenarios are commonly used in the insurance industry for stress testing, but interpreting and communicating results is often challenging, given strong limitations and complex assumptions. This session will provide practical guidance on stress testing application in the ORSA context, focusing on financial risks, and provide context and foundations necessary in order to communicate and interpret the results. We will discuss key evolutions in recent years with a particular emphasis on NGFS scenarios and the modelling of physical risks.

The session will be based around a case study for a generic insurer, where we calculate impacts on the insurer’s capital position under different climate change scenarios, thereby illustrating the practical elements of stress testing. In this context, we will specifically talk about: Key steps to practical implementation of stress tests, models for key financial variables relevant for insurance stress testing (e.g. interest rates, credit spreads), NGFS scenarios and their recent evolution, impact of scenario updates, modelling of physical risks, as well as key limitations and considerations for reporting.

The web session is open to all interested persons working within the insurance industry, with a particular focus on professionals dealing with climate change scenarios e.g. in the ORSA. Preliminary knowledge in climate scenarios is helpful, but not a prerequisite.

Participants of the previous session E0453 ‘Climate Change Scenarios in Context – A Stress Testing Case Study’ on 9 October 2024 are eligible for a 50% discount on this session. Please send an e-mail to contact@actuarial-academy.com to check your eligibility, and allow a few days for handling.

Technical Requirements
Please check with your IT department if your firewall and computer settings support web session participation (the programme Zoom will be used for this online training). Please also make sure to join the web session with a stable internet connection.

This session will have a practical focus around a case study in order to illustrate not only the practical elements of stress testing, but also discuss challenges and limitations and provide context around the foundations surrounding the scenarios. We will cover the following topics:

1. Introduction to Climate Change Scenarios, context and evolution
2. Application in Stress Testing, and how to enhance NGFS scenarios for stress testing applications
3. Modelling context and Interpretation of results, especially on physical risk
4. Impact of recent evolutions and key assumptions
5. Considerations for disclosure and reporting of climate change scenarios
6. Outlook
   

The language of the web session will be English.

Daniel Teetz
Daniel is a Senior Manager at Oliver Wyman Actuarial Services in Germany, specializing in climate risk management for insurers. He is advising insurers globally on various aspects of quantitative and qualitative climate change risk assessment, climate scenario analysis and risk management integration. He has extensive hands-on experience in practical implementation of climate risk stress testing. Daniel holds degrees in Physics and in Mathematics from RWTH Aachen and LMU Munich. He is a CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) charter holder, and also holds the Sustainability and Climate Risk Certificate (SCR) from the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP).