28 Nov 2022
Introduction to Natural Catastrophe Modelling
Natural Catastrophe Models are a key ingredient for the assessment of Nat Cat risk. Questions like “What losses do we expect from catastrophic events on average?” and “What losses do we need to expect in the worst case?” are becoming more and more relevant, in particular considering climate change. Natural Catastrophe Models try to answer these questions in a statistical sense, and have for many years now become an important tool for the assessment of (re-)insurance contracts. In this web session, we will give a basic introduction to Nat Cat Modelling and its applications.
Organised by the EAA – European Actuarial Academy GmbH.
The web session addresses all interested persons who want to learn more about the basics of Natural Catastrophe Modelling. It is beneficial if participants have basic knowledge of reinsurance and statistics.
Please check with your IT department if your firewall and computer settings support web session participation (the programme Zoom will be used for this online training). Please also make sure that you are joining the web session with a stable internet connection. The case study will be provided as Microsoft Excel file, hence Microsoft Excel or a compatible software is recommended.
Purpose and Nature
During the web session, the basic components of a Nat Cat model will be explained: Exposure data, the hazard, vulnerabilities, and the financial model. Additionally, sources of uncertainty will be discussed together with methods for quantification. After the first part, we will build our own simple Nat Cat model in a hands-on case study. Lastly, we will look in more detail at the results a model can produce and how to use them for pricing in the reinsurance context.
The language of the web session will be English.
Dr Daniel Bölinger
Daniel, a physicist and neuroscientist by training, works for more than 10 years at Munich Re in different roles related to Natural Catastrophe Modeling: Model Calibration, Accumulation Control, Property Treaty Underwriting, Nat Cat Tool Development.