In recent years, predictive modelling has changed important aspects of actuarial practice. Predictive modelling enhances traditional actuarial models with modern statistical tools and analysis. It uses emerging volumes of data to provide important insights into life and health insurance business, including how to identify appropriate risks, manage the risks insurance companies face, and improve the accuracy of actuarial projection models.
Predictive modelling impacts many areas of life and health insurance – from underwriting, to risk identification, to assumption setting and financial modelling. In underwriting, predictive modelling can be used to select the policyholders that meet desired risk profiles and to improve the accuracy of risk classification schemes. For existing blocks of business, predictive modelling allows actuaries to identify key risk factors impacting financial performance, creating opportunities to proactively manage those risk. As a projection tool, actuaries use predictive modelling to identify the key factors impacting actuarial assumptions, and to appropriately fit the assumptions used in financial projection models to historical data, potentially improving the accuracy of actuarial projections.
As actuaries enhance their focus on and knowledge of predictive analytic tools, it is likely that predictive modelling will play an increasingly important role in actuarial practice in the future. This seminar is designed to provide actuaries with the technical tools needed to be prepared for the ways in which actuarial practice may evolve in the coming years.
Organised by the EAA - European Actuarial Academy GmbH in cooperation with the Col·legi d’Actuaris de Catalunya.